The Price of Gold Is Crashing. Here's Why

Photograph by Yuriko Nakao/Bloomberg-A gold bar at the 2013 Gold Expo in Tokyo

A chart of the crashing price of gold looks like a wedding ring rolling off a table. Gold futures for June delivery closed at $1,361 an ounce on the Comex in New York today, a drop of more than $200 in two sessions. Gold’s fall of 13 percent since April 11 was the biggest two-session decline since 1980.
Why is gold plunging? The most important factor is that global inflation is falling, reducing gold’s value as a hedge against rising prices. Gold bugs who were betting on an outburst of inflation are scrambling to reverse their bets and exit their gold positions at any price.
For consumers struggling to make ends meet, it may seem hard to believe that inflation is falling. But the evidence is clear from JPMorgan Chase’s (JPM) global consumer price index, which covers more than 30 countries that collectively represent more than 90 percent of world economic output.
According to the JPMorgan index, global inflation peaked at 4 percent in 2011 and has fallen steadily since. Global prices in February were up only about 2.5 percent from a year earlier, the bank’s index says.
JPMorgan has two scenarios for what happens next. Its main one is based on a “bottom-up” collection of analysts’ forecasted price trends sector by sector around the world. That shows inflation rising very slightly from its current level for the rest of 2013. In contrast, JPMorgan’s “top-down” analysis, which is prepared by the banks’ economists and takes into account prices of commodity futures contracts, among other factors, shows inflation moving down closer to 2 percent in the second half of 2013.
The headline on JPMorgan’s report: “The slide in global inflation may not be over.”
Joseph Lupton, a senior global economist at JPMorgan Chase, said in an interview that the inflation decline is partly a matter of supply bottlenecks easing, which is a good thing, and demand growth slowing, which is not so good. Lupton said he’s not in the business of forecasting gold prices, which tend to be whipsawed by speculation more than other commodity prices are. Says Lupton: “Gold is an animal in and of itself.”
Last week Goldman Sachs (GS) warned that the retreat in gold was accelerating after the longest rally in nine decades.
“Anybody who did some buying before this big drop is probably in some pain,” Donald Selkin, who helps manage about $3 billion of assets as chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York, told Bloomberg News. “The perception is that gold is not really needed as a safe haven. People are looking at the stock market, and they’re stunned, and there’s no inflation. So people are saying, ‘What do we need gold for?’”

By Peter Coy
Source: http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-04-15/the-price-of-gold-is-crashing-dot-heres-why

4 Predictions for the Next 40 Years in Mobile

It is a remarkable 40 years since Motorola researcher Martin Cooper called his Bell Labs rival from New York in 1973 using the DynaTAC handheld phone and, in doing so, making what is widely acknowledged as the world's first public mobile phone call.
At nine inches tall the DynaTAC was handheld in the loosest possible terms, weighing the same as one and a half bags of sugar and would have cost consumers the equivalent of nearly $10,000 in today's money. It's worth reading this copy of the original Motorola press release.
So what will the next 40 years of mobile communications hold in store for us? Here are just four of the innovations I predict we will see.

1. Beyond touch
For years the BlackBerry QWERTY keyboard was seen as the most effective and productive way of using a mobile device for text-based tasks such as email and editing documents on the go. Apple's touchscreen iPhone with a virtual keyboard and swipe gestures changed all that and now we are starting to see even more innovation around controlling devices through eye-scrolling and gesture control as seen with Samsung's Galaxy S4 and the Google Glass prototype. Also, check out the Myo gesture control armband (https://getmyo.com/) which is shipping at the end of this year.

2. More video and data
In the early years of consumer mobile phone development, size mattered and the market produced ever smaller and lighter devices. With the arrival of the internet, 3G (and now 4G) combined with cheaper and more compact processing power the phones (and screens) got bigger and smarter. As high-speed connectivity becomes ever more ubiquitous the screen is once again becoming more important as we do more video-based tasks and consume entertainment on our devices. Indeed the GSMA predicts data will overtake voice revenues in mobile within the next five years.

3. Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
Previously 'dumb' everyday devices and sensors will become increasingly connected to the vast web we call the internet of things. Almost everything will have the capacity to become 'smart' and this will lead to a revolution in work and society as wearable devices monitor our health, cars become smarter and more efficient and intelligent city ecosystems become interconnected.

4. Graphene and new mobile form factors
The developments around graphene in particular are hugely exciting. Not only is graphene the thinnest material ever made (it's one atom thick), it's incredibly strong (300-times stronger than steel), flexible and a better conductor than copper. We are already starting to see some early prototype development around bendable and flexible super-thin mobile phones. I believe we've barely scratched the surface of what might be possible in this field, not only for mobile but wider computing and engineering.
Forty years since that first mobile call the telecoms industry is worth £800billion a year, there are almost 7 billion connected devices and the number of mobile devices is predicted to outstrip the number of people on our planet this year.
Here's to another exciting 40 years in mobile.

By:

Olaf Swantee

 

Source: http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20130415083322-206751421-4-predictions-for-the-next-40-years-in-mobile